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Pace of Construction Activity Projected to Accelerate Through 2019

Economic

Despite labor shortages and rising material costs that continue to impact the construction sector, construction spending for nonresidential buildings is projected to increase 4% this year and continue at that pace of growth through 2019. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast indicates the commercial construction sectors will generate much of the expected gains this year, and by 2019 the industrial and institutional sectors will dominate the projected construction growth.

“Rebuilding after the record-breaking losses from natural disasters last year, the recently enacted tax reform bill, and the prospects of an infrastructure package are expected to provide opportunities for even more robust levels of activity within the industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) and other major leading indicators for the industry also point to an upturn in construction activity over the coming year.”

Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts 2018 2019
Overall nonresidential building 4.0% 3.9%
 
Commercial / industrial 4.4% 2.9%
Office space 4.6% 3.0%
Retail 4.4% 3.5%
Hotels 4.1% 0.8%
Industrial facilities 3.3% 5.2%
Institutional 3.8% 4.3%
Education 4.0% 4.9%
Healthcare facilities 4.0% 4.0%
Public safety 3.6% 3.9%
Amusement / recreation 3.3% 2.4%
Religious -1.1% 0.9%

 

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