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Nonresidential Building Spending to Grow Through 2019, but Cautious Outlook for 2020

Nonresidential construction spending on buildings is projected to grow by 4.4 percent through 2019, according to a new consensus forecast from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).

Healthy gains in the industrial and institutional building sectors have bolstered growth projections for 2019; however, the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel—consisting of leading economic forecasters—is suggesting that a broader economic downturn may be materializing over the next 12-24 months. Learn more about this Consensus Construction Forecast online.

“Though the economy has been performing very well recently, trends in business confidence scores are red flags that suggest a slowdown is likely for 2020,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “These signals may be temporary responses to negative short-term conditions, but historically they have preceded a more widespread downturn.”

Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts 2019 2020
Overall nonresidential building 4.4% 2.4%
Commercial/industrial total 3.5% 0.6%
Hotels 3.9% -0.7%
Office space 5.1% 1.2%
Retail 1.9% 0.4%
Industrial total 4.8% 2.7%
Institutional total 4.8% 2.9%
Public safety 6.8% 4.9%
Healthcare facilities 4.0% 3.6%
Education 5.5% 4.1%
Amusement / recreation 4.4% 0.6%
Religious -2.6% -1.2%

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